NFL WEEK 3 BET OF THE DAY

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A Separate Reality
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FINAL 2002 RECORD
YTD BEST BET W-L 17-10 (.629)
SIDES 14-7 (.666)
TOTALS 3-3 (.500)

QUALITY NOT QUANTITY. QUANTITY COMES WITH TIME. NO SHAME IN GETTING RICH SLOWLY

Not to shabby last year. Hit 14 out of 21 sides including the Super Bowl. Went on to a horrendous NBA season. Have picked one MLB game this season, (the first game. It lost). I’ve been laying low, licking my wounds and replenishing my bankroll. It was weird at first not been fully involved in gaming. I’ve always said a man gotta make a bet at least once a day, he could be walking around lucky and not know it.

Didn’t much like anything the first 2 weeks. At the last second, last Sunday I posted Detroit plus the points, breaking one of my rules of not betting unless I have handicapped the game at least 2 hours prior. Off course I paid the price. Discipline is what separates the winners from the losers.

Got a nice win last night, Thursday on the Nevada/San Jose game. I didn’t post it, but made a reply to a post and stated that Nevada was holding all the cards. Nevada broke out to a 26 to 3 lead laying 1 point and never looked back. I didn’t post for lack of confidence since things have not been going my way. When I first looked at the game in depth, I thought, OK what’s the catch here? San Jose looks horrible, they only had 62 scholarships and are lacking players. One of their guys is a one-legged corner for Gods sake! That was the catch, the guy was going to be playing special teams and the media was hyping San Jose’s emotional angle. Emotion but no players . Emotion can only take you so far and when you don’t have the horses watch out. Nevada covered. Thank you for indulging me by reading all this. It feels good to be back

NFL WEEK 3

My picks here will have the same modus operandi (M.O.). Better defense and better T.O. differential. The public and the media can have the offense. Defense is what covers the spread. I broke the better defense rule once last year on this site when I took Philly at home vs Tampa Bay in the NFC championship. Tampa’s defense dominated. I rode TB’s defense in the Super Bowl not making the same mistake twice.

SAN FRAN at home laying 7 is what I’m going with this week. Better defense and better T.O. differential. Cleveland has bee having problems on both sides of the ball this season. On Offense they have only scored one TD and on defense they couldn’t stop Jamal Lewis who told them he was coming and ran for an NFL record 295 yards. The offensive problems can be attributed to an inexperienced one game wonder QB who was given the starting position due to media pressure on the coach. Holcomb has looked confused and will be facing a front line that had 5 sacks last week and 5 sacks the previous. Strength vs weakness. I like that match up. SF offense matches up well vs the aforementioned Brown defensive unit. SF’s O is methodical and will be able to move the chains by land or air. SF patchwork offensive line has provided good protection for Garcia and has opened up running lanes for Hearst and Barlow. Cleveland will be traveling cross country for a non conference game and that doesn’t bode to well for them. They will be playing with a lot of emotion and urgency but like San Jose St. last night they don’t have the horses to pull it off.

I’m a fundamentalist capper and I know that all the technicals favor Clev, who was a great road dog last year and SF stank as a home favorite. I’ll leave with a common sense fundamental stat from an ESPN2 football show last night. (I didn’t catch the name). SF is 39-0 in a row SU when they hold an opponent to 17 points or less. DEFENSE. Don’t see Cleveland scoring more than 10. SF has a new kicker who joined team on Tuesday, don’t see him being a factor.

All opinions welcomed. I’ll be updating this post till kickoff.

SF-7 vs CLEVELAND

RECORD
YTD BEST BET W-L 0-1
SIDES 0-1
TOTALS 0-0
 

A Separate Reality
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Brown offense #31 Off yards. San Fran defense #1 yds allowed. San Fran #1 scoring offense. Brown # 21 in points allowed Yeah I know its only been 2 games but hey I'll take it.
 

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San Fran is coming off a loss and will have something to prove at home.

Good call and good luck.
 

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Occams- Good analysis. I hope I don't put the mush on your play but this is my first bet of the NFL season. As you brought up, Jamaal Lewis's record day was even stronger when you realize that the Browns knew he was coming and they couldn't stop him. Of course, missed tackles all day long will help you get big yards in a hurry. Lewis is the Raven's only offense because Kyle Boller can't throw the ball more than five yards down the field. San Francisco will put up 30 points on this team as they can run and pass.

Cleveland's best part of their offense is their two speedy wide receivers but Holcombe can't get them the ball. I don't know why he's starting. I just heard Northcutt is questionable and if he doesn't play, that's just an added bonus. The 49ers will drill this team.
 

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Sorry Razor, but I see Cle. +7 as a pretty
decent play.

Cle. is in a pissed off position to play
hard and the Cle. atheletes are not
7 points worse than SF IMHO...

I would however like to see Couch back
starting at QB...
That would make Cle. a even better play ...

With Cle however, you must watch out for the
"Cleveland Steamer" which is unwanted bizness...
Very stinky...

OBB
 

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Olebill, I'd like Couch back in there since I picked him up earlier TW, hey I spent all of my money trying to give R. Moss for free and I got stuck instead (I wound up with Maddox, Harrington, and Holcomb). I can see Holcomb sitting back on the bench in the very near future.
 

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Got Cleveland at +11...(pro line) so maybe most cannot relate but it seems like a decent play. Situation favours it. They only lost by 6 against a revived edgrin james and the colts in week 1. I think public opinion is too one sided against this team...they just might cover
 

A Separate Reality
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Good luck to us Soccerbob

From the San Fransisco Chronical:

"Story line: The 49ers have to be careful not to overcorrect based on last Sunday's mistake-marred performance. This could be easy to do, because the Browns are not very good, and the 49ers have been lectured about not making mistakes.

When the 49ers have the ball: No mystery here, the 49ers will try to run after Ravens running back Jamal Lewis rolled up a league-record 295 yards rushing on Cleveland last week. The Browns tried to stop Lewis late in the game by stacking nine men at the line of scrimmage. It didn't work. If it works against the 49ers, look for Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens to have a breakout game. This could be the first opportunity this season for the 49ers to throw deep.

When the Browns have the ball: Cleveland will try to run. QB Kelly Holcomb has struggled and the Browns would like to get him comfortable with a strong running game. It will be a good test for the 49ers, who ignited the Rams' offense last week with their inability to stop the run at the start of the second half. Against a good running team, look for the 49ers to be more basic on defense."
 

A Separate Reality
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Great halftime adjustments by Cleveland. Only consolation for me is that 49rs lost the game straight up. I hate it more when the spread comes into play.
 

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The 49ers played a prevent defense and a prevent offense in the same game and that's why they lost. I think halftime betting was invented for games just like this one. It's good to be able to get off a game when you sense at halftime that you may have the wrong side or you can try to middle or side the game.
 

Where Taconite Is Just A Low Grade Ore
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The "all my eggs in one basket" sounds good in theory but like all theories there is a downside. Here you leave no margin for error. Always give yourself an alernative or 2 or 3.
 

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am I the only one who thinks he broke the plane on that 4 & goal???
or just sour grapes from a bitter better?
gl
bl
 

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